Kalshi bans ex-lawmaker George Santos for life over trading

Former U.S. Representative George Santos has been permanently barred from trading on prediction-market platform Kalshi after the company determined that he manipulated a market connected to his attendance at President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address.

Kalshi also ordered Santos to pay a $71,356 penalty, citing his refusal to fully cooperate with the company’s investigation into his trading activity.

The action marks the first lifetime trading ban publicly issued by Kalshi and follows a separate federal regulatory case involving Santos’ bets on whether he would attend the presidential address.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission had previously accused Santos of using public statements about his plans to influence a prediction market in which he held financial positions.

Santos reportedly placed contracts connected to his expected attendance while publicly suggesting that he intended to be present at the event.

He ultimately did not attend, allowing positions linked to his absence to generate a profit.

Federal regulators determined that the trading activity generated more than $17,000 for Santos.

He later reached a settlement with the CFTC, agreeing to pay more than $35,000 without admitting wrongdoing and accepting a three-year prohibition on participating in prediction markets.

Kalshi’s decision goes further, permanently preventing Santos from using the platform.

The case illustrates a growing regulatory concern surrounding prediction markets, particularly when traders possess information or influence that ordinary market participants do not have.

Prediction platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have expanded rapidly by allowing users to trade contracts tied to elections, sports, economic data, political developments and other real-world events.

The growth has also prompted regulators to examine whether people with direct access to nonpublic information can exploit markets based on events they influence.

The Santos case is not the only recent enforcement action involving alleged improper trading on prediction markets.

A former White House teleprompter operator was previously accused by the CFTC of using advance knowledge of presidential speeches to place trades on Kalshi.

That individual was ordered to surrender more than $100,000 in trading profits and pay an additional $65,000 penalty.

Kalshi has also taken disciplinary action against political candidates who traded contracts connected to their own campaigns.

Such cases have intensified debate over where legitimate prediction-market participation ends and market manipulation begins.

For platforms operating in the rapidly expanding event-contract industry, preventing traders from exploiting personal knowledge or control over an outcome has become a major compliance challenge.

Santos already has a long history of political and legal controversy.

The former New York Republican was expelled from Congress in December 2023 following a congressional ethics investigation.

He later pleaded guilty to federal wire fraud and aggravated identity theft charges.

President Donald Trump commuted Santos’ sentence in 2025.

The latest Kalshi ruling adds another significant sanction to Santos’ record while highlighting the unique risks associated with prediction markets.

Unlike traditional financial markets, many prediction contracts involve events that traders may personally influence or have privileged knowledge about.

The case therefore serves as a high-profile test of how prediction-market companies police conflicts of interest and prevent participants from turning inside knowledge into financial advantage.