Florida primaries offer early look at 2026 midterm battleground

# Florida Primaries Deliver Expected Wins and Surprises Ahead of November Midterms

Florida’s primary elections have reshaped several of the state’s most closely watched political races, producing a combination of expected victories and surprising upsets as candidates from both major parties prepare for the November midterm elections. The contests were held under Florida’s recently redrawn congressional map, which is widely expected to strengthen Republican control of the state.

In the Republican governor’s primary, Rep. Byron Donalds secured the nomination with 47.8% of the vote after receiving an endorsement from President Donald Trump. He defeated Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, who received 25.1%, while James Fishback finished with 10.5%. Donalds will now face Democrat David Jolly, a former Republican congressman who won the Democratic primary with 61.07%.

The governor’s race could make history, as Donalds would become Florida’s first Black governor if he defeats Jolly in November. He also entered the general election with a major financial advantage, having raised more than $100 million during the primary campaign. Republicans currently hold a significant registration advantage over Democrats in Florida.

The biggest surprise of the night came in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate. Progressive state Rep. Angie Nixon defeated former national security official Alexander Vindman with 56.1% of the vote, despite being dramatically outspent. Nixon raised less than $1 million, while Vindman’s campaign raised around $16 million.

Nixon built her campaign around issues such as universal health care and child care and has also been outspoken on U.S. foreign policy and the war in Gaza. After conceding, Vindman said he would support Nixon in her general-election campaign.

Nixon will face Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, who easily won her party’s primary with 79.6% of the vote. Moody defeated Chris Gleason, who received 13.7%. Democrats face a difficult challenge in the race, having not won a U.S. Senate election in Florida since 2012.

The attorney general contest produced no primary surprises, with Republican Rep. James Uthmeier and Democrat José Javier Rodriguez advancing without opposition. Both will compete in the November general election.

Several House races also attracted national attention. In the 25th Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz won his primary with 63.5%, defeating union organizer Oliver Larkin. In the 20th District, Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz defeated Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick and several other candidates in the majority-Black district.

A notable Republican upset occurred in the 7th Congressional District, where former news anchor Ryan Elijah defeated Rep. Cory Mills. Mills had initially received Trump’s backing but finished with 34.1% of the vote, compared with Elijah’s 47.3%.

In the 6th Congressional District, Rep. Randy Fine won comfortably with 56.9%, defeating Daniel Bilzerian, who received 18.7%. Fine, who is known for his strong pro-Israel position, will continue his campaign for the House seat.

Overall, the results reinforce Florida’s position as a Republican stronghold, although several individual races could still become competitive in November. The state’s newly redrawn congressional map is expected to give Republicans an advantage and could significantly limit the number of House seats Democrats are able to win.

With the primary contests now settled, attention will shift toward the November elections, when Florida voters will decide whether the state’s Republican dominance continues and whether any of the primary upsets can translate into victories on the national stage.